New Delhi: Quoting a study conducted by ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research), Health Ministry Joint Secretary Lav Agarwal said on Tuesday that one COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days without a lockdown. "In medical terms- this phenomenon is known as R-naught-or R0. It is a virus's basic reproductive number — an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness of infectious agents," he said and asserted that social distancing was necessary. He added that the current 'R0' or R naught for the Coronavirus infection is somewhere between 1.5 and 4.
"With preventive measures in place, the possibility of the infection can be reduced to an average of just two-and-a-half persons per patient in the same period," said the bureaucrat.
"If we take the 'R0' to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days, if the lockdown and social distancing measures are not in place, but if social exposure is reduced by 75 percent then that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons," Agarwal said and added that the ongoing 21-day lockdown and practising social distancing was necessary.
Leveraging the smart infrastructure, cities are developing predictive analytics using heat maps and taking action in monitoring the movements (using geo-fencing) as well as periodic health status of suspected cases, said Agarwal.
Reviewing the strategy of cluster containment, the bureaucrat added that the strategy is producing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara and East Delhi. He also added that Smart Cities are ensuring collaborated efforts to monitor the suspected cases of COVID-19. Adding further he said that the government has managed to build three kinds of centres exclusively for COVID-19 management.