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One COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days without lockdown

Quoting a study conducted by ICMR, Health Ministry JS said that one COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days without a lockdown
  • In medical terms- this phenomenon is known as R-naught-or R0

  • The ongoing 21-day lockdown and practising social distancing was necessary to contain COVID-19 spread, said the JS

New Delhi: Quoting a study conducted by ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research), Health Ministry Joint Secretary Lav Agarwal said on Tuesday that one COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days without a lockdown. “In medical terms- this phenomenon is known as R-naught-or R0. It is a virus’s basic reproductive number — an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness of infectious agents,” he said and asserted that social distancing was necessary. He added that the current ‘R0’ or R naught for the Coronavirus infection is somewhere between 1.5 and 4. “With preventive measures in place, the possibility of the infection can be reduced to an average of just two-and-a-half persons per patient in the same period,” said the bureaucrat.

‘Need lockdown, social distancing to contain infection’

“If we take the ‘R0’ to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days, if the lockdown and social distancing measures are not in place, but if social exposure is reduced by 75 percent then that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons,” Agarwal said and added that the ongoing 21-day lockdown and practising social distancing was necessary.

‘Leveraging smart infrastructure, cities developing predictive analytics’

Leveraging the smart infrastructure, cities are developing predictive analytics using heat maps and taking action in monitoring the movements (using geo-fencing) as well as periodic health status of suspected cases, said Agarwal. Reviewing the strategy of cluster containment, the bureaucrat added that the strategy is producing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara and East Delhi. He also added that Smart Cities are ensuring collaborated efforts to monitor the suspected cases of COVID-19. Adding further he said that the government has managed to build three kinds of centres exclusively for COVID-19 management.
  1. COVID-19 care centres for mild cases and suspect cases will include schools, colleges, hotels converted into quarantine facilities. It will have one hospital in the vicinity to recommend patients with more severe symptoms to other care facilities.
  2. Dedicated covid Health centres For cases showing moderate symptoms will have full hospitals or dedicated block in hospital with separate entry/exit.Every bed must have oxygen support system.
  3. Dedicated COVID-19 hospitals for critical cases and ageing patients- Full hospitals or dedicated block in hospital with separate entry/exit. Every bed must have oxygen support system fully equipped ventilators and ICU facilities.