New Delhi: Rating agency ICRA on Monday estimated India's GDP growth at a four-quarter low of 7 percent in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal, sliding from 7.8 percent in the March quarter of FY26, on a slower pace of expansion in the services sector.
It projected the industrial sector to grow at 7.7 percent, agriculture at 4 percent, and the services sector to grow at 7.9 percent in the June quarter.
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For the full 2026-27 fiscal, ICRA projects GDP growth to moderate to 6.7 percent, from 7.7 percent in FY26.
ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that high-frequency indicators across the industrial and services sectors revealed a healthy picture of domestic volume growth in the June quarter of 2026-27, belying the concerns about the fallout of higher commodity prices during the quarter due to the West Asia conflict.
"ICRA projects the real GDP expansion to have eased to 7 percent in Q1 2026-27 from 7.8 percent in Q4 2025-26, in line with the Monetary Policy Committee's growth forecast for the quarter," Nayar said.
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ICRA said the 7 percent growth in the June quarter would be a four-quarter low.
Business sentiments of services companies weakened materially in the June quarter of FY27, with the pace of optimism dipping to the lowest level in five years, amid headwinds owing to the West Asia crisis as well as persistent wage cost pressures.
"Based on the assumption of an average crude oil price of USD 80-85/barrel in 2026-27, ICRA expects the real GDP growth to moderate to 6.7 percent in the fiscal from 7.7 percent in 2025-26, with risks tilted to the downside amid continued tensions in West Asia and monsoon-related uncertainty," Nayar said.
However, the nominal GDP expansion is projected to accelerate to a four-year high of 13 percent in 2026-27 from 8.9 percent in 2025-26, amid expectations of a hardening in the inflation prints, she added.
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