Saturday, June 25, 2022

Economic Survey 2021-22: India likely to grow 8-8.5% in FY23, other highlights

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  • With the enhanced borrowings on account of COVID-19, the Central government debt has gone up from 49.1 percent of GDP in 2019-20 to 59.3 percent of GDP in 2020-21
  • India has become 3rd largest start-up ecosystem in the world after US and China

New Delhi: Indian economy is estimated to grow by 9.2 percent in real terms in 2021-22 (as per first advanced estimates) subsequent to a contraction of 7.3 percent in 2020-21 and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to hover between 8 and 8.5 percent in 2022-23, said the Economic Survey 2021-22. Union Minister for Finance Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2021-22 in Parliament on Monday. 

The highlights of the Economic Survey 2021-22 are as follows:

State of the economy

1.    Indian economy estimated to grow by 9.2 percent in real terms in 2021-22 (as per first advanced estimates) subsequent to a contraction of 7.3 percent in 2020-21. 
2.    GDP projected to grow by 8-8.5 percent in real terms in 2022-23.  
3.    The year ahead poised for a pickup in private sector investment with the financial system in good position to provide support for economy’s revival. 
4.    Agriculture and allied sectors expected to grow by 3.9 percent, industry by 11.8 percent and services sector by 8.2 percent in 2021-22.
5.    Macroeconomic stability indicators suggest that the Indian economy is well placed to take on the challenges of 2022-23.
6.    Combination of high foreign exchange reserves, sustained foreign direct investment, and rising export earnings will provide adequate buffer against possible global liquidity tapering in 2022-23.
7.    Economic impact of “second wave” was much smaller than that during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21, though health impact was more severe.

Fiscal Developments

1.    The revenue receipts from the Central Government (April to November 2021) have gone up by 67.2 percent (YoY) as against an expected growth of 9.6 percent in the 2021-22 Budget Estimates (over 2020-21 Provisional Actuals).
2.    Gross Tax Revenue registers a growth of over 50 percent during April to November 2021 in YoY terms. This performance is strong compared to pre-pandemic levels of 2019-2020 also. 
3.    During April-November 2021, capex has grown by 13.5 percent (YoY) with focus on infrastructure-intensive sectors.
4.    Sustained revenue collection and a targeted expenditure policy has contained the fiscal deficit for April to November 2021 at 46.2 percent of BE.
5.    With the enhanced borrowings on account of COVID-19, the Central government debt has gone up from 49.1 percent of GDP in 2019-20 to 59.3 percent of GDP in 2020-21, but is expected to follow a declining trajectory with the recovery of the economy. 

Monetary management and financial intermediation

1.    The Gross Non-Performing Advances ratio of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) declined from 11.2 percent at the end of 2017-18 to 6.9 percent at the end of September 2021.
2.    Net Non-Performing Advances ratio declined from 6 percent to 2.2 percent during the same period.
3.    Capital to risk-weighted asset ratio of SCBs continued to increase from 13 percent in 2013-14 to 16.54 percent at the end of September 2021.
4.    The Return on Assets and Return on Equity for Public Sector Banks continued to be positive for the period ending September 2021.

Capital markets

1.    Rs 89,066 crore was raised via 75 Initial Public Offering (IPO) issues in April-November 2021, which is much higher than in any year in the last decade.
2.    Sensex and Nifty scaled up to touch peak at 61,766 and 18,477 on October 18, 2021.

Prices and inflation

1.    The average headline CPI-Combined inflation moderated to 5.2 percent in 2021-22 (April-December) from 6.6 percent in the corresponding period of 2020-21.
2.    The decline in retail inflation was led by easing of food inflation.
3.    Food inflation averaged at a low of 2.9 percent in 2021-22 (April to December) as against 9.1 percent in the corresponding period last year.
4.    Wholesale inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose to 12.5 percent during 2021-22 (April to December).

Sustainable Development and Climate Change

1.    India’s overall score on the NITI Aayog SDG India Index and Dashboard improved to 66 in 2020-21 from 60 in 2019-20 and 57 in 2018-19.
2.    India has the 10th-largest forest area in the world.
3.    In 2020, India ranked third globally in increasing its forest area during 2010 to 2020.
4.    In 2020, the forests covered 24 percent of India’s total geographical, accounting for 2 percent of the world’s total forest area.
5.    In August 2021, the Plastic Waste Management Amendment Rules, 2021, was notified which is aimed at phasing out single use plastic by 2022.
6.    The compliance status of Grossly Polluting Industries (GPIs) located in the Ganga main stem and its tributaries improved from 39 percent in 2017 to 81 percent in 2020.

Agriculture

1.    The Agriculture sector experienced buoyant growth in past two years, accounting for a sizeable 18.8 percent (2021-22) in Gross Value Added (GVA) of the country registering a growth of 3.6 percent in 2020-21 and 3.9 percent in 2021-22.
2.    The livestock sector has grown at a CAGR of 8.15 percent over the last five years ending 2019-20. It has been a stable source of income across groups of agricultural households accounting for about 15 percent of their average monthly income.

Industry and infrastructure

1.    Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew at 17.4 percent (YoY) during April-November 2021 as compared to (-)15.3 percent in April-November 2020.
2.    Capital expenditure for the Indian railways has increased to Rs 1,55,181 crore in 2020-21 from an average annual of Rs 45,980 crore during 2009-14 and it has been budgeted to further increase to Rs 2,15,058 crore in 2021-22 — a five-times increase in comparison to the 2014 level.
3.    Extent of road construction per day increased substantially in 2020-21 to 36.5 Km per day from 28 Km per day in 2019-20 — a rise of 30.4 percent.
4.    Introduction of Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, major boost provided to infrastructure — both physical as well as digital, along with measures to reduce transaction costs and improve ease of doing business, would support the pace of recovery.

Services

1.    GVA of services crossed pre-pandemic level in July-September quarter of 2021-22. However, GVA of contact intensive sectors like trade, transport, etc still remain below pre-pandemic level.
2.    During April-December 2021, rail freight crossed its pre-pandemic level while air freight and port traffic almost reached their pre-pandemic levels, domestic air and rail passenger traffic are increasing gradually. It shows impact of second wave was much more muted as compared to the first wave.
3.    India has become 3rd largest start-up ecosystem in the world after US and China. Number of new recognised start-ups increased to over 14,000 in 2021-22 from 733 in 2016-17.
4.    Indian start-ups have achieved unicorn status in 2021 taking overall tally of unicorns to 83, most of which are in services sector.

Social infrastructure and employment

1.    157.94 crore doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered as on 16th January 2022; 91.39 crore first dose and  66.05 crore second dose.
2.    With revival of economy, employment indicators bounced back to pre-pandemic levels during last quarter of 2020-21.
3.    As per the quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PFLS) data up to March 2021, employment in urban sector affected by pandemic has recovered almost to the pre-pandemic level.
4.    According to Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) data, formalisation of jobs continued during second COVID wave, adverse impact of COVID on formalisation of jobs much lower than during the first COVID wave.
5.    Expenditure on social services (health, education and others) by Centre and states as a proportion of GDP increased from 6.2 percent in 2014-15 to 8.6 percent in 2021-22 (BE).

National Family Health Survey-5

1.    Total Fertility Rate (TFR) came down to 2 in 2019-21 from 2.2 in 2015-16
2.    Infant Mortality Rate (IMR): under-five mortality rate and institutional births have improved in 2019-21 over year 2015-16
3.    Under Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM), 83 districts have become ‘Har Ghar Jal’ districts.
4.    Increased allotment of funds to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGS) to provide buffer for unorganised labour in rural areas during the pandemic.

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