Greenhouse gases will cause 1.5 million deaths in India per year post 2100

New Delhi: A study has warned that continued emission of greenhouse gases will result in the deaths of 1.5 million citizens in India every year after 2100. The study has been conducted by Climate Impact Lab in collaboration with the Tata Centre for Development at UChicago.

The death rate in India is projected to rise to about 10 percent of the current rate due to climate change, the study said. This translates to 60 deaths per 100,000 population by the end of the century under a scenario of continued greenhouse gas emissions in India.

Greenhouse gases will increase extremely hot days by 8 times in India

The average number of extremely hot days in India (days with temperature over 35°C) will increase by around eight times per year from 5.1 (in 2010) to 42.8 per year in 2100. To establish the relationship between extreme heat and mortality, mortality-temperature relationship estimates were used in the study to generate projections of the future impacts of climate change on mortality rates.

And the study found that a rise in average summer temperature and number of extremely hot days has an impact on mortality.

6 states will contribute 64% of total deaths

Six states — Uttar Pradesh (402,280), Bihar (136,372), Rajasthan (121,809), Andhra Pradesh (116,920), Madhya Pradesh (108,370), and Maharashtra (106,749) — are expected to contribute 64 percent of the total excess deaths. As the number of extremely hot days increase, 16 out of 36 states and union territories are projected to become hotter than Punjab, which is currently the hottest state in India.

In total, 1.5 million more deaths each year are projected from 2100 onwards due to extreme heat caused by climate change.
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Delhi to experience 22 times more extremely hot days

While Delhi will experience 22 times more extremely hot days (3 to 67) by 2100, Haryana (20 times), Punjab (17 times) and Rajasthan (7 times) will not be much better off, the study said. Michael Greenstone, faculty director at the Tata Centre for Development at UChicago and a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said that the study's findings makes it clear that continued reliance on fossil fuels globally will greatly harm the well-being of Indians in the coming years and decades.