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India’s GDP dips to 3.1% in Q4FY20. And this includes only a week of lockdown

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  • It must be noted that during the quarter under review, only one week of nationwide lockdown was observed

  • India’s GDP for the entire financial year was at 4.2 percent as compared to 6.1 percent in FY2018-19

New Delhi: India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew by 3.1 percent in the last quarter of the financial year 2019-20, data released by the Central Statistics Office on Friday showed. The figures pertain to the period just before India reported a rise in confirmed Coronavirus cases and placed a nationwide lockdown on March 24 to contain the spread of the pandemic. Therefore, it must be noted that during the quarter under review, only one week of nationwide lockdown was observed.

India’s GDP for the entire financial year was at 4.2 percent as compared to 6.1 percent in FY2018-19, the Statistics Ministry said. The median forecast from a Reuters poll of economists had put India’s annual economic growth at 2.1 percent in the March quarter.

India’s GDP was at 4.7% in December quarter

In the December quarter of FY2019-20, India’s GDP was at 4.7 percent. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 of 2019-20 is estimated at Rs 38.04 lakh crore, as against Rs 36.90 lakh crore in Q4 of 2018-19, showing a growth of 3.1 percent, said the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.

The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) had estimated India’s GDP for financial year 2019-20 to be at 5 percent as projected by the NSO in its first and second advance estimates released earlier this year in January and February, respectively.

Economists expect financial contraction in FY21 to be worst in 4 decades

The impact of the lockdown on manufacturing and services is expected to be visible in the June quarter of FY2020-21, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 45 percent contraction from a year ago. Economists expect the ongoing financial year to record the worst economic contraction in the last four decades.

“Economic activity will face ongoing disruption over the next year as the country transitions to a post-COVID-19 world,” rating agency S&P had said on May 28, cutting its 2020-21 forecast to a 5 percent contraction.

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