New Delhi: India will need to add 35 GW of additional coal-based power generation capacity by FY32 to meet the peak power demand, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has said in its draft National Electricity Plan released on Monday. In the draft note, the CEA has forecasted the need to add 25.58 GW of coal-based capacity by FY27 and another 9.43 GW by FY32 to meet the projected peak power demand. The plan has projected India's peak power demand at 272 GW for the year 2026-27 and 363 GW for the year 2031-32, respectively.
India's total electrical energy requirement is expected to be at 1,874 BU in 2026-27 and at 2,538 BU in 2031-32.
The capacity addition required during 2022-27 to meet the peak demand and energy requirement for the year 2026-27 is 228.54 GW, comprising of 40.63 GW of conventional capacity addition (coal- 25,580 MW, gas- 370 MW and nuclear- 7,000 MW) and 187.909 GW of renewable-based capacity addition (large hydro-10,951 MW, solar- 1,32,080 MW, wind- 40,500 MW, Biomass- 2,318 MW, PSP- 2,700 MW), excluding 5,856 MW of likely hydro-based imports.
The capacity addition required during 2027-32 to meet the peak demand and energy requirement for the year 2031-32 is 243.04 GW comprising of 18.134 GW of conventional capacity addition (coal- 9,434 MW, nuclear- 8,700 MW) and 224.91 GW of renewable-based capacity addition (large hydro-10,888 MW, solar-147,400 MW, wind- 53,100 MW, including 43,100 MW of onshore and 10,000 MW of offshore, biomass- 1,500 MW, Pumped Storage Plants- 12,020 MW). This figure does not include 5,856 MW of likely hydro-based imports.
For the year 2021-22, the capacity addition achieved from conventional sources has been 30,667.91 MW, said the CEA. It added that as of March 31, 2022, India has achieved a cumulative installed renewable energy capacity (including large hydro) of 156.61 GW.
The total installed power generation capacity of the country is 398.986 GW (excluding 510 MW of diesel-based capacity), said the draft document. It comprises of 235.60 MW of thermal, 6.78 MW of nuclear and 156.607 GW of renewables.
Under-construction plants comprise 25.95 GW of thermal power, 10.90 GW of hydro power plants, 1,580 MW of Pumped Storage Plants (PSP) and 7,000 MW of nuclear power plants, said the CEA.
All-India installed capacity is likely to be 622.90 GW at the end of the year 2026-27 and 865.94 GW at the end of the year 2031-32. "The projection of total capacity addition are in line with the target of the country to achieve a non-fossil based installed capacity of 500 GW by the year 2029-30," said the CEA.
"It is seen that apart from under-construction coal-based capacity of 25 GW, the additional coal-based capacity required till 2031-32 may vary from 17 GW to around 28 GW. It is also seen that the BESS (5-hour) requirement in 2031-32 is varying from 51 GW to 84 GW," the CEA added.
The average PLF of the total installed coal capacity of 239.3 GW was found to be about 55 percent in 2026-27, which is expected to rise to 62 percent in 2031-32, said the draft National Electricity Plan.
The domestic coal requirement in the year 2026-27 have been estimated as 831.5 Million Tonnes (MT) and in 2031-32 as 1,018.2 MT and imports by plants designed on imported coal to be 40 MT.
The average CO2 emission rate from coal-based stations in the country has been on a declining trend, indicating improvement in efficiency of power generation from such power plants, said the CEA. It added that the total CO2 emissions projected will increase from 910 MT in 2020-21 to 1,030 MT in the year 2026-27 and 1,180 MT in 2031-32. The average emission factor is expected to reduce to 0.524 kg CO2/kWh in the year 2026-27 and to 0.441 kg CO2/kWh by the end of 2031-32.
The CEA has sought comments from all stakeholders on the draft National Electricity Plan by December 5.
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