China supplies over 30% of India's industrial goods; overdependence on single nation critical: GTRI

New Delhi: China accounts for around 16 percent of India's total imports, but its dominance is significantly higher in industrial goods, supplying as much as 30.8 percent of the country's requirements, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday.

The country's imports increased to USD 774.98 billion in 2025-26. Out of this, USD 131.63 billion was from China.

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Dependence on a single supplier for critical inputs leaves sectors like pharmaceuticals, electronics and clean energy exposed to disruptions, whether geopolitical or commercial, it said.

The GTRI analysis said that about 66 per cent of India's imports from China, valued at USD 82.6 billion, are clustered in electronics, machinery, computers, and organic chemicals.

China accounts for 43 percent of India's electronics imports, 40 percent of machinery and computer imports, and 44 percent of organic chemicals.

"These are not discretionary purchases but core inputs that feed directly into India's manufacturing ecosystem," Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

He said that the Indian industry relies heavily on Chinese inputs such as electronics parts, EV batteries, solar modules, APIs and specialty chemicals.

"As a result, even as India tries to grow exports, its supply chains remain tied to China. This creates clear risks," he added.

The GTRI suggested that India needs to build domestic capacity in key sectors and diversify supply chains.

"A practical starting point would be to limit dependence on any single country to below 30 percent of imports in critical sectors," Srivastava said.

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India's trade with China is no longer just a deficit story; it is a production-dependence story.

Exports to China remain stuck below FY2021 levels at USD 19.5 billion, while imports have more than doubled to USD 131.6 billion, pushing the deficit to USD 112.1 billion in 2025-26.

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