India’s jet fuel demand to reach 277,000 barrels a day by 2031: Report

New Delhi: India’s jet fuel demand is projected to rise to 277,000 barrels per day by 2031, from about 192,000 barrels per day in 2024, creating a growing market for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), according to a report released on Monday.

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The report, jointly developed by S&P Global Energy and the SAF Association, estimates domestic SAF demand at 46,000 tonnes in 2027, increasing to 250,000 tonnes by 2030.

The projections come against the government’s announced SAF blending roadmap, starting at 1 percent in 2027 and rising to 2 percent in 2028 and 5 percent in 2030 to help decarbonise aviation.

Released at the second India SAF Conclave, the report said aviation would remain one of India’s fastest-growing sources of refined petroleum product demand through 2060, supporting the development of a domestic SAF industry.

Rising middle-class mobility, expanding domestic and international air travel, airport development and airline fleet additions are expected to drive that growth.

While aviation fuel consumption weakened in mid-2026, the report said the slowdown appeared temporary rather than structural. July demand fell to about 180,000 barrels per day amid weaker flight activity, higher operating costs and supply disruptions.

However, jet fuel consumption in the first half of 2026 still rose nearly 2 percent year-on-year, indicating that the recent weakness had not displaced the longer-term growth trend.

Rising passenger traffic, the expansion of low-cost aviation and stronger international connectivity are expected to sustain demand. New infrastructure, including Navi Mumbai International Airport and Jewar Airport in Noida, could ease capacity constraints and accommodate more flights.

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International aviation is expected to remain a significant contributor, with international seat capacity expanding faster than domestic capacity in 2026 despite higher ticket prices, the report said.

It also identified the government’s UDAN regional connectivity scheme as a structural driver of aviation growth.

On airline costs, the report highlighted an aviation turbine fuel pricing stabilisation mechanism, including a fixed ATF price in Delhi and a dedicated stabilisation fund. It said the mechanism, while not a direct subsidy, could reduce fuel-price volatility and give airlines greater visibility over operating costs.

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