OPEC+ output cut may lead to higher oil prices, push up India's import bill: IEA

Paris: The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday termed the decision of OPEC+ to cut oil production as "risky for the global economy", saying it may push up already high prices, leading to higher import bills for nations like India. Global oil markets were already set to tighten in the second half of 2023, with the potential for a substantial supply deficit to emerge, said Fatih Birol, head of the Paris-based energy watchdog.

There could be upward pressure on the prices: Goyal

After a bilateral meeting with India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said, "The cut of the additional production would mean that we have all the reasons to believe that there could be an upward pressure on the prices." He noted, "At this juncture of time when the global economy is still very fragile and many emerging countries have difficulties with economic performance, I found this decision risky for the global economy."

Higher oil prices will lead to a larger import bill

Asked if oil prices could go past USD 100 per barrel again, he said, "I think it is USD 85 now, and looking at the second half of this year, I have reasons to believe that it can go even higher at current levels." Higher oil prices will not just translate into inflationary pressure on other commodities but will also lead to a larger import bill for nations like India, which are dependent on overseas supplies to meet their requirements.

Birol said that India's economy is strong and continues to be stronger.
"We expect the Indian economy will soon be the third largest economy of the world and the growing economy needs. We do revise our numbers all the time, but I expect that the Indian economy will still be strong this year, one of the strongest in the world. And as such, we require strong oil and electricity demand," he said. On Russia's invasion of Ukraine, he said that the war has led to a big push for clean energy solutions.

"In addition to that, we also see that as a result of this war, Russia was a major world's number one natural gas exporter. More and more countries are producing and exporting gas and we expect it in the next two to three years. There will be a float of LNG coming to markets and as such, would put downward pressure on the prices and ease gas supply security concerns," he added

Asked about the impact of sanctions on Russia, he said the objective of reducing Russian oil revenue has been achieved. "Our numbers show that in one year of time since the 24th of February, when the war started, the Russian oil and gas export revenues declined, dropping by 60 percent. If we consider that the oil and gas export revenues are a very important input for the Russian budget, it is a major challenge for the Russian economy," he added.

'India is profiting by importing crude at a lower discounted price than the others'

Russian oil is being sold at a discount to international benchmarks because some Western nations have stopped buying it and their insurance companies are no longer providing cover for ships carrying such oil. India is one of the countries, which utilised the opportunity to buy discount oil to cut its import bill. The IEA head said that India was doing this in a transparent way and within international rules and regulations. "And India is profiting by importing crude at a lower discounted price than the others. This is definitely a legitimate step." 

(PSU Watch– India's Business News centre that places the spotlight on PSUs, Bureaucracy, Defence and Public Policy is now on Google News. Click here to follow. Also, join PSU Watch Channel in your Telegram. You may also follow us on Twitter here and stay updated.)