Domestic solar cell supply shortage short term, market set to realign soon: Experts

New Delhi: The country's domestic solar cell supply shortage is a short-term challenge and will ease as manufacturers ramp up capacity to meet local-content requirements, industry players said

The total solar cell manufacturing capacity in the country is projected to rise to around 100 GW by December 2027, while the current capacity stood at 32 GW.

The current module (solar panel) making capacity is estimated at over 200 GW, industry officials said. Modules or solar panels are made up of cells.

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“India has approximately 32 GW of enlisted domestic solar-cell capacity, with further capacity expected to be commissioned and enlisted during the year. The current supply-demand mismatch is only a transitional phase as the market aligns with local content requirements soon,” Vineet Mittal, chairman of Avaada Group, told PTI.

His comments come in the wake of reports of a shortage of domestically manufactured cells following the implementation of the government-approved list of models and manufacturers for solar cells (ALMM List-II), particularly for rooftop and other projects covered under local-content requirements.

Mittal explained that comparing total module capacity with that of domestic cells could be "misleading" as module plants do not operate at full utilisation and a substantial pipeline of projects is outside the domestic-cell requirement.

“The present issue is one of matching technology, specifications and procurement schedules. This does not prove that India cannot develop adequate cell capacity,” he said.

Avaada expects its cell-manufacturing capacity to reach 6 GW and plans to supply half-cut cells to domestic module manufacturers. “India does not need low-efficiency assembly lines to make its manufacturing numbers appear larger,” Mittal said.

The country cannot become "Aatmanirbhar" if the critical components used in its solar and wind infrastructure continue to be sourced predominantly from overseas, he said.

"Besides exposing the industry to external pricing, trade restrictions, and shipping disruptions, it will widen the gap in technology adoption against other countries,” he said.

Gyanesh Chaudhary, chairman and managing director of Vikram Solar, said the ALMM List-II mandate marked a decisive structural shift in the sector, taking it from module assembly towards end-to-end domestic manufacturing.

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“Backward integration is the real key to long-term energy security. Backed by strong policy pushes like ALMM List-II, Indian manufacturers are making massive capital investments to bridge this gap permanently,” Chaudhary said.

Vikram Solar is on track to commission 9 GW of domestic solar cell capacity by the end of FY27, he said.

The country's ALMM-enlisted module manufacturing capacity has crossed around 217 GW.

Sustainable Projects Developers Association's governing council member Ravi Verma said similar concerns came to the fore when India pushed to localise module manufacturing.

“Manufacturing capacity adapts to the certainty of demand. Investors commit capital when they can see a credible market for the resulting product,” Verma said, adding that the ALMM had helped create such certainty for module manufacturers and a predictable cell-localisation framework could do the same for cell producers.

Analyst Avinash Gorakshakar said the immediate challenge was more nuanced than the comparison between module and cell capacities.

“Not every module factory operates at full utilisation nor does every solar project fall under domestic-content or ALMM cell requirements,” said Gorakshakar, founder of Avinash Mentor Research.

ICRA had estimated in November 2025 that India's cell manufacturing capacity could increase under ALMM to around 100 GW by December 2027, driven by investments following ALMM List-II.

It expects module capacity to exceed 165 GW by March 2027, while warning that excess module capacity could lead to consolidation among smaller and standalone manufacturers.

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